Let’s play two, they’d say before we were around, when there was no need to spread out baseball games to get as much television exposure as possible. Cram in a couple games and spend the whole day out, because there’s nothing better than a doubleheader at the ballpark.
But unless we’re talking about 12-year-olds at an AYSO tournament, soccer can’t do that, which means the Portland Timbers’ foray to Los Angeles is as close to doubleheader soccer as we can get. Sunday afternoon in Major League Soccer play, the Timbers will face Los Angeles FC for the second time in franchise history (3pm PT, ESPN), a prelude to a Wednesday night meeting at Banc of California Stadium that will end with one team in U.S. Open Cup’s semifinals (7:30pm PT, Timbers.com).
It’s only been two months since these teams last saw each other, leaving each with some idea of how to approach the other. But in that time, LAFC has continued to dissuade the notion that they should be seen through an expansion team’s lens. Second in the Western Conference and possessing the league’s best attack, head coach Bob Bradley’s first-year team is already a contender for everything, now.
How Portland offsets that will dictate whether the Timbers’ unbeaten run reaches its 14th stop. Here is this week’s KeyBank Scouting Report:
Defense
The Timbers have faced high-ranking attacks before. Both New York City FC (on April 22) and Atlanta United FC (June 24) were at or near the top of the league’s goal-scoring charts when they took on Portland, and over the course of those 180 minutes, the Timbers only gave up one goal. That’s only two games, but based on those returns, Giovanni Savarese’s side look capable of executing a plan that can contain any team in Major League Soccer.
To the eye, though, those two games were drastically different. Against NYCFC, Savarese deployed a 4-1-4-1 formation which, with a midfielder often folding back wide of the right back, created a five-man defense, forced everything wide and keeping Patrick Vieira’s then-team playing around the edges. Counter-attacking soccer sent New York home with a surprise loss. Against Atlanta, Portland’s 5-3-2 formation emulated (in some ways) the team’s NYCFC approach, but United was able to create a number of good opportunities against the Timbers’ defense. That game could have easily ended 3-3 instead of 1-1.
Into that picture comes Los Angeles FC, a team that only scored once in their May 19 visit to Providence Park. Since then, though (as we discussed in Know Your Opponent), LAFC’s attacking output is up 34 percent, pushing the first-year team to the top of MLS’ scoring charts, on a per-game basis. The addition of Adama Diomande from Hull City has given the team the scoring threat it lacked at striker when Costa Rican Marco Ureña was running opposing center backs into the turf. Now, instead of merely having a complementary piece in their No. 9’s spot, LAFC has a threat.
How Larrys Mabiala and Julio Cascante contain could make-or-break Portland’s fortunes, but the Timbers have faced these types of challenges, before. The question is whether the defense will be close to the one that contained NYCFC’s David Villa, or the one that saw United’s Josef Martínez fail to convert on his chances in Atlanta.
Sam and Diego
How much attention Portland has to devote to preventing goals (as opposed to creating them) could determine whether the team’s two biggest attacking threats stay hot, but while those temperatures are still elevated, it’s worth noting the form Samuel Armenteros and Diego Valeri carry into their Los Angeles sojourn.
After his brace against San Jose on Sunday – his second multi-goal effort of the season – Armenteros has scored six times in his last seven games, putting up a goal-per-minute rate, in that time, that’s besting MLS Golden Boot-leader Josef Martínez (one goal every 73.5 minutes for Armenteros; 93 minutes for Martínez). Portland’s newest weapon is sure to regress to the mean, at some point, but nobody can be sure what, exactly, his MLS mean is. Is it a goal every 73.5 minutes? Probably not. Is it at Martínez, Bradley Wright-Phillips, Villa or Sebastian Giovinco levels? Coming anywhere close would be a major boon for Portland.
As for Valeri, we have a good idea of where his level lies. Over 13,000 minutes in the league gives us enough of a sample, and after assisting on each of the Timbers’ last five goals (a club record run), the 2017 Most Valuable Player’s numbers are falling in line with his career rates. Having collected six goals and eight assists in this year’s first 16 games, Valeri is on pace for the fourth double-double season (at least 10 goals, 10 assists) of his MLS career.
To this point, the Timbers’ attack has offered mostly modest returns, with the team’s 26 goals in 16 games landing them in the middle of the MLS charts. But these surges from Armenteros and Valeri hint Portland may yet have another level, and with Sebastián Blanco returning to full health, the team has more weapons beyond their current big two.
Back end of the squad
Speaking of options, the back end of Portland’s bench remains the most intriguing part of the team’s roster, with the numbers game we alluded to in last week’s KeyBank Scouting Report (as well as an Inside PTFC, or two), starting to weigh heavy on Giovanni Savarese’s decisions.
Think about it. As we saw last week, a typical, seven-player bench is going to have this breakdown: a goalkeeper; two defenders (one that can play fullback); three midfielders; and a forward. Last week, that breakdown went Jake Gleeson; Bill Tuiloma and Vytas; Andrés Flores, David Guzmán and Andy Polo; and Fanendo Adi.
Notice a couple of names not on the list. First, Liam Ridgewell, somebody who has been the Timbers’ best (and, not best) defender at various points this season, but a player who has recently been given time to adjust to the arrival of a new child. Mabiala experienced a similar arrival before the first game of the season, but back then, the battles for playing time weren’t as developed. How does Ridgewell reclaim minutes in a more established squad?
Then there’s Cristhian Paredes, a player who has been a key part of Portland’s improvement throughout the season. Paredes was on the bench but didn’t play two-and-a-half weeks ago when the team won in Seattle, but in the days that followed, he picked up a hamstring injury. Having a ridiculous number of starting-caliber midfielders means Savarese doesn’t have to push Paredes until he’s 100 percent, but when the Paraguayan is, who, within Saturday’s 18, becomes the odd man out?
That’s probably not the right way to phrase it. Given what Savarese has told us all year, this will be less of an “odd man out” situation than one dictated by the coming matchups, as well as form and the week’s training.
From outside the coaches’ offices, though, that doesn’t make things any clearer. And with each matchday, going forward, there will be more anticipation of which Timbers crack the 18-man squad.
