BEAVERTON, Ore. – It will be a week before the Portland Timbers return to their training center in Beaverton, Oregon. Thanks to the luck of the U.S. Open Cup’s draw, head coach Giovanni Savarese’s team departed on Friday for a seven days and six nights in Minnesota, with Sunday’s game in Major League Soccer serving as the front end of an MLS-USOC doubleheader that will unfold over 76 hours.
Playing the same team (Minnesota United), in the same place, over such a short period of time feels like an outlying scenario, but the Timbers have been here before. They’ve been here recently. Before last year’s U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal loss to Los Angeles FC, Portland faced MLS’s newest team in league play. The teams played to a 0-0 draw on Sunday at Banc of California Stadium. The Wednesday game went to LAFC, 3-2.
Expectations are higher this year, and not only because the Timbers have gone deeper in Open Cup. A look across the teams remaining in that competition casts Portland as the form team, with their recent success away from home making a potential road final only so much of an obstacle. Among the honors the Timbers can claim, Open Cup joins Concacaf Champions League as the two Portland’s never won. The Timbers are a pair of victories from reducing that list to one.
Up first, though, is a league battle that could prove important to positioning in the Western Conference. Here is this week’s KeyBank Scouting Report – three areas of focus ahead of Portland’s MLS battle in Minnesota:
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The strength of a road dawg
Don’t look to the standings for evidence of the Timbers’ road prowess. The “Away” column on MLSSoccer.com only says 6-7-2, but a better measure of Portland’s threat is the team’s last three road results: a 1-0 win at New York City FC; a 1-0 win at Los Angeles FC; and a 2-1 victory at Seattle Sounders FC. All three teams had been unbeaten, this year, at home. All three teams were handed their first losses.
Minnesota United isn’t undefeated at home, but they’re awfully close. Their only loss at the new Allianz Stadium came on June 2 to the Philadelphia Union, and while they’ve also been drawn four times in 11 games, taking full points out of St. Paul is proving a major challenge.
Is it more of a challenge than Banc of California Stadium? Or CenturyLink Field? Unless LAFC starts playing home games at Allianz Stadium or the Loons can take up residence in Seattle, it’s hard to know, but the Timbers have faced this type of challenge before. And even beyond their recent results, Portland is 8-2-1 on the road (in all competitions) since their season’s slow start.
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Chasing down the pack
LAFC might be out of reach at the top of the West – up 18 points on the Timbers, as of now – but the rest of the conference can be caught.
It’s something that makes Portland’s recent wins over Seattle and the LA Galaxy even more valuable. Portland may be seven back of the second-place Sounders and six points out of the top four (aka, the places that get home games in the playoffs’ first round), but with a game in hand and a home-heavy schedule, head-to-head success can help the Timbers claim a prime playoff slot.
Taking three from Minnesota on Sunday would be big step in that direction. Before kickoff, the Loons will have a four-point edge on the Timbers, but Portland will have that game in hand. And while they won’t overtake Minnesota with a win, a potential one-point gap with an extra game to play would make the Timbers favorites to vault them.
There are three other key games like this on the Timbers’ schedule. Drop points at home to the Sounders on August 23, and second place may prove out of reach. Slip against Minnesota on September 22, and any gains made this week could be lost. And without winning the season finale against San Jose at Providence Park, Portland may not be able to vault the Earthquakes.
Is it too early to called these games “six pointers?” Well, every game is a six pointer, depending on your commitment to the bit. But the Timbers’ current state doesn’t require much imagination. Three points against Minnesota would be huge.
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Managing the miles
Being drawn at Minnesota for Wednesday’s semifinal may prove a blessing. Instead of dealing with travel during the short turnaround from Sunday’s game, the Timbers will already be in market, able to have a normal recovery day, and have more players ready for their mid-week game than they otherwise might. The team’s recent schedule put them in a similar situation, giving them only two days off between games against Orlando and Seattle. This time, though, the Timbers won’t have to take a short trip north.
The biggest difference, here, will be the possibility for 120 minutes on Wednesday. If that game is even at the end of regulation time, the teams are playing another half-hour, potentially adding even more stress to the compacted schedule. It’s one thing to push players twice in four days. But what if that twice actually means playing 30 minutes more?
Speculating about who could the task is tempting, but it’s also futile. We constantly theorize, in sports, about which soccer players could go three times in a week, or whether certain basketball players can play back-to-back nights. Some can, some can’t, and while it’s always fair to wonder which players are ready, it’s too much to assume without knowing more about a player’s health.
It will be a concern, though. Even if Savarese decides to play full teams on Sunday and Wednesday, he’ll have to ask: who can play both games? How effective will they be, if they do? And would the drop in performance caused by fatigue make their backup a better option?
