Inside PTFC | How the NWSL landscape just got much tougher for the Portland Thorns

When the 2018 National Women’s Soccer League season began, the landscape around Portland Thorns FC had already drastically changed. Not only were the league’s defending champions going through their own changes, with Amandine Henry’s and Nadia Nadim’s returns to Europe, but the teams around them were stocking up. The North Carolina Courage added U.S. international Crystal Dunn to their Shield-winning squad, the Seattle Reign capped their capture of two-time title-winning coach Vlatko Andonovski with a star-studded makeover, while the Orlando Pride added the depth they needed to build on their second-year playoff performance. No matter what, 2018 was going to be far tougher than the 2017 season.

At this year’s midway point, those three teams sit atop the NWSL. Unfortunately for the Thorns, the landscape deeper down the standings has gotten more rugged, too, with a blockbuster trade that was made official on Monday improving the three teams that surround them in the standings.

Normally, we wouldn’t spend this space’s time focusing on other teams, except for when they reveal something new about the Thorns. But as the season goes on, and Portland continues to sit mid-table, the context around the Thorns starts to become more important. Now, with Chicago, Houston and Utah making significant improvements this week, the Thorns’ prospects are also in focus.

If even one of those teams beat out the Thorns over the last half of the season, Portland might miss the playoffs for the second time in team history. Right now, the team needs to be focused on its own improvement, but for those of us on the periphery, there may be no such thing as devoting too much thought to show the rest of the league has improved.

The big shakeup

The trade, in its most-raw form, breaks down like this:

• Chicago gets fullback Brooke Elby and six future draft picks (four of which could end up being firsts, including the guaranteed number one pick in the 2019 draft)
• Houston gets midfielder Sofia Huerta and midfielder/fullback Taylor Comeau
• Utah gets forward Christen Press and defender Samantha Johnson.

Unless you’re deeply versed in the NWSL’s rosters, those bullet points may feel like a morass of “so what.” Press, maybe Huerta, are the only names that stand out. But when you do a before-and-after on these teams, you can see the makeovers, and when the significance of those makeovers’ parts is laid bare, the NWSL’s terrain starts to fraught.

Brightening Red Stars

At the beginning of the year, Chicago would have been deemed the greatest threat of these three teams to Portland’s title hopes, having added league Most Valuable Player Sam Kerr to a team that had already made the postseason three years in a row. But amid a myriad of preseason injuries, a front-loaded schedule, and Huerta’s desire to play at outside back, the Red Stars had to recalibrate. As of Monday, the recalibration saw Huerta, Johnson and Comeau leaving the team, partially to make room for a returning U.S. international, Morgan Brian.

Brian is a central midfielder best known for her 75 caps over six years with the United States, and there’s no way to understand how well the Red Stars did in this deal without sliding her in view. In a salary-capped league with roster restrictions, space needed to be made for Brian’s NWSL return from France. Chicago not only made that room but reacquired the rights to Press, the biggest and most influential name in this deal, who moved on to Utah in exchange for Elby and five of the deal’s six picks.

Chicago isn’t necessarily a more talented team after these deals, but the pieces fit better, and in Brian and Vanessa DiBernardo (who, along with Casey Short, is just returning from injury), they have two highly-skilled midfielders who can play the Red Stars’ desired technical style. Beyond loading up with draft assets for years to come, Chicago has helped their quest to qualify for a fourth-straight postseason.

A greater Dash arsenal

Houston may be similarly improved, having exchanged the rights for a player who wasn’t playing for them (Press) for two players who can help now. Where Huerta actually plays is an open question, as there is an obvious fit for her in Houston’s attack, but her addition to the back line along with the arrival of Australian international and former Thorn Clare Polkinghorne, gives the seventh-place Dash a pronounced talent upgrade.

Who knows if Brooks will be moved into midfield. She may have national team ambitions of her own. But with the loss of Kristie Mewis for the season, getting the natural midfielder back into the middle would make sense. And, if this XI can continue the improvement the Dash have shown over the season, the Thorns will have more than Chicago to worry about from below.

The Royal coup

And finally, there’s Press’ final destination, a Utah team that appeared to be enduring expansion pains a couple of months ago. But with the best defense in the league (only eight goals allowed in 11 games), the only thing the Royals lacked were goals (10, this year). Insert Press, one of the most prolific goal scorers in the history of the NWSL, but also Samantha Johnson, somebody who has been a reliable part of strong defenses throughout her time in Chicago.

The biggest question for Utah is where Press fits in. She is a center forward, but Utah already has one of those in Amy Rodriguez, somebody who isn’t as adept as Press in wide areas. Will Utah head coach Laura Harvey go to a two-striker look, something she’s almost never done in her NWSL career? Or will we see Press start from the right flank, come inside as U.S. international right back Kelley O’Hara takes up that space on the flank, when she returns to health? No matter the answer, it’s not hard to image Utah being a more dangerous squad with Press in tow.

The champions’ outlook

As it concerns the Thorns, the questions coming out of this trade are all about pecking order. Where in the NWSL’s does Portland fall?

Remarkably, although the landscape around the Thorns keeps changing, the answers remain the same. And in that way, all of the above could, ultimately, be irrelevant.

Although teams like Chicago, Houston and Utah – North Carolina, Orlando and Seattle, too, for the matter – are clearly improved, the Thorns still have enough talent to carve out their own destiny. Because as Portland showed in last year’s final, or as it did in its title run five years ago, sometimes it’s less about your quantity of talent than the type of talent you have.

Players like Christine Sinclair and Lindsey Horan give the team edges in physicality, creativity, scoring and problem-solving that are rare even among the NWSL’s elite. You saw all that come out during last season’s run to the title. Tobin Heath, too, is part of that group, just as she has been part of groups that have won major honors at college, club, and country levels. Even if a team can replicate their talents, it’s unclear, in those final moments when sacrifice is needed most, you can replicate these players’ results.

Emily Sonnett also proved herself over last year’s run. Emily Menges, too. Adrianna Franch has been part of teams that have won three major NWSL honors, as has Katherine Reynolds. Players like Hayley Raso emerged and redefined their reputations last season, while in Meghan Klingenberg, Portland has another player whose proven she can deliver in the most heightened moments.

The Thorns are still a very talented team, but they’ve never relied on talent alone. If they had, they might have fallen short to North Carolina last year, or to FC Kansas City in 2013. It’s the combination of talent and mentality that has produced this core’s results.

Sometimes, when coaches or analysts rely on mentality to justify a team’s worth, they do blindly, unwilling to consider what other teams can offer. The way sports work, there can only be one winner at a time, right? Everything becomes tautological.

No, what this is about is how the Thorns will respond to their new challenges, and whether the qualities that earned them a second star can carry them to a third. It’s about whether the injuries and absences the team has struggled to offset will define the season or become a mere subplot.

In the face of the standings, and in the wake of Monday’s shakeup, the league is now harder than it’s ever been, meaning Portland may have to be better than ever to just keep up. Whether they have that in them, or have enough time to find it, will come down to the progress they make, starting now.