Welcome back, Portland Timbers soccer.
On the heels of one of the team’s most impressive performances of 2018, the Timbers were handed a bye week, leaving fans to ruminate on the group’s 4-1 victory at Real Salt Lake. Come 2 p.m. on Sunday, the rumination will have to end, with Portland finally completing their prolonged home-and-home with RSL at Providence Park.
For RSL’s part, Mike Petke’s team returned to the field on Thursday and posted a 4-1 victory of their own, using a visit to Rio Tinto Stadium by the New England Revolution to deliver Portland soccer a needed reminder. No doubt, the Timbers’ victory two weeks ago was impressive, but to approach Sunday’s return engagement as if the challenges will be the same would be naïve. Even if all other things are equal, Real Salt Lake’s motivation will be different. On Thursday, in the face of a chance to let their season slip further – a chance paved by a lineup that was deprived of six of its regular starters – RSL signaled their intent to fight for their final points of the season.
It creates a win-and-in scenario for both teams, with the postseason awaiting should either side take full points at Providence Park. For Portland, the road to the playoffs is even easier, though, with the Timbers needing only one point over their final two games to make a postseason return. But, as head coach Giovanni Savarese said earlier this week, at this point of the season, “momentum is everything,” so although points against RSL will be the goal, the trend that begun with strong performances against FC Dallas and in Utah may, in the long run, be more important.
Here is this week’s KeyBank Scouting Report – three areas of focus as the Timbers close their regular season set with RSL:
1. Let’s keep talking about that 4-2-3-1!
Any prolonged discussion about a formation ends up in a weird, tactical netherworld, one where you risk exaggerating the effect of one factor while ignoring every other.
Whether we’re in that place regarding the Timbers’ last formation, it’s hard to say. Some conversations may be treating the tweak as a panacea; others may be maintaining perspective. The conversation around each view, though, is fascinating. It speaks to how important formations, and tactical discussions in general, have become.
Ten years ago, most people didn’t hear about formations. They were never mentioned in match reports. To the extent they were discussed on broadcasts, that discussion rarely went beyond the opening lineup card. Fans didn’t want to hear about such things, producers thought, ignoring the fact that most places in the world (albeit, non-English-language places, at the time dwelt on tactics the same way chess experts dwell on single moves. In those places, the managers’ decisions where foundational to the games' outcomes.
That’s where we are, now. The question is whether we’ve gone too far. In the wake of the Timbers’ win at Real Salt Lake, attention focused on the team’s shift to a 4-2-3-1 formation. And rightly so. The team hadn’t used that approach since the opening months of the season, and amid many onlookers’ pining to revert to the shape, Portland delivered one of its season’s best results. But to focus solely on the shape and not the performances of Diego Chara, David Guzmán, Jeremy Ebobisse and Player of the Week Sebastián Blanco would dwell on the rubber instead of the wheel. Each factor plays a part.
We need to keep talking about the 4-2-3-1 formation: why it worked; how likely it is to be used, going forward; whether it truly is Portland’s best approach. But we also need to remember that formation goes so far, and in the performances of the players as well as the more nuanced part of a staff’s approach, there are other elements that make or break an approach.
Still, looking back on 2008, remembering where we were not so long ago, it’s nice to be at this stage. We’re finally talking about more things that matter. If we’re talking about formations a little too much, eh, maybe we’re just making up for time lost.
2. But who would be that “1?”
Don’t just assume that Portland will go back to a 4-2-3-1 formation. Savarese has defied expectations before, and if the small tweaks he’s routinely made between games provide any hint toward Sunday, it hints no idea will be forsaken. Would it be at all shocking if, in an effort to get both of the team’s starting-caliber forwards (Samuel Armenteros and Ebobisse) into the lineup, Savarese returned to the 4-3-1-2?
No, but if he doesn’t, the decision around the “1” at the top of the 4-2-3-1 will be compelling. Ebobisse is the form player, flashing the type of all-around game that is an ideal fit for the malleability of the 4-2-3-1. Armenteros, though, has played as a lone striker throughout much of his career in Europe, and as his pedigree and early-season exploits remind us, the Sweden international has reached heights Ebobisse’s still working toward.
We’ve used this missive throughout the year when referring to the Timbers’ depth, but these are the difficult decisions the team’s roster construction is designed to create, be they in attack, midfield, or in defense. Just because that’s the design, though, doesn’t make those decisions any easier. The same difficultly Savarese had in choosing between Armenteros and Fanendo Adi earlier this year has resurfaced through another forward at the end of the season.
That’s a good thing. That’s why the team traded up, a year ago, to take Ebobisse in the draft. That also makes the formation choice, as well as that potential “1,” all the more interesting for Sunday’s game against RSL.
3. Return, upon return, upon return … upon return?
Armenteros’ absence at Salt Lake was due to illness. He’s back, practicing, and ready to play a part come Sunday. So is Alvas Powell, who missed the Utah trip as he recovered from a concussion; so is Liam Ridgewell, who sat out while serving a suspension.
There’s no doubt those three will be available for selection. The status of goalkeeper Jeff Attinella, though, is slightly more up in the air, even if the Timbers’ first-choice `keeper has been fully training all week. Coming off an injury that saw not one but two shoulder separations sideline him, the training is good news. Whether he’ll be fully capable to face his former team on Sunday, however, remains to be seen.
If he returns, the Timbers will be in a remarkable place. Goalkeeper Jake Gleeson is sidelined with an injury that ended his season, and Roy Miller’s recovering from last year’s Achilles injury has prevented him from playing beyond Timbers 2, but through the rest of the squad, the availability of Attinella, Guzmán and Andy Polo (the last two still returning from international duty) are the only concerns. Amid their difficult choices, Savarese and his staff will have almost the full arsenal at their disposal.
To be at this point is a testament to the team’s training staff, as well as the way Savarese and Co. have used the squad. It also means some position battles are still evolving, making the choices Savarese makes over these final weeks all the more important.
