Wednesday night felt like progress for the Portland Timbers, who carried a three-game winless (and, scoreless) streak into their game at Providence Park. But even the rosiest view of the team’s 2019 hopes have to be concerned by one bottom line. Yes, the attack finally broke through, scoring twice in the second half against visiting New England, and were it not for some late-game controversy, the team would have been back in the win column. But the team didn’t get back into that win column. Now winless in four, the team has work to do before hitting the postseason.
Beyond the results, much of Portland's play is progressing in the right direction. In attack, the chances the team was creating (but not converting) against the New York Red Bulls and Minnesota United FC came good against the Revolution. In defense, too, the team played well through most of the match, although the late-game breakdowns have to be acknowledged. And between the penalty boxes, in the moments the team had to build play or merely hold onto the ball, Portland looked better than they had for most of the month. In terms of process, things appear to be improving.
But too often in sports, the appeal to process over results strikes the wrong balance. Clearly, both are important. Just as ignoring a team’s play and dwelling on outcomes can be mislead when trying to assess a team’s potential, so too can ignoring outcomes paint a deceiving picture of a team’s actual level. At some point, you have to be able to obtain results, and usually do so by playing well.
It’s been a long time since the Timbers doubted their ability to produce wins when they count. Even at season’s onset, when Portland went 0-5-1 to start their campaign, there was confidence the team could turn their year around. But the closer the group gets to their finish line, and the closer their games come to being must wins, the more their inability to win matters. Process is something you can lean on during the regular season. Come the playoffs, it’s all about results.
Starting Sunday in Kansas City (4:30pm PT, ROOT SPORTS), the Timbers have two games to prove they’re ready for the postseason. They have to actually qualify, too. It may be impossible to do so if they don’t break into the win column.
Here is this week’s KeyBank Scouting Report – a quick look at Sunday’s matchup at Children’s Mercy Park:
The rare off year: Sporting Kansas City’s form
Record: 10-15-7 (37 points, 11th place out of 12 in MLS’ Western Conference)
Goals for: 47 (16th)
Goals against: 59 (tied for 21st)
Goal difference: -12 (20th)
Peter Vermes took over as head coach of Kansas City in 2009, two years before “Sporting Kansas City” became a thing. Under his stewardship, Sporting’s made eight-straight postseasons, claimed both an MLS and U.S. Open Cup, and established itself as one of the most consistent teams in Major League Soccer. Vermes is as respected as anybody when it comes to running the soccer side of an MLS club.
All of which makes their 2019 season somewhat of a shock. As of this weekend’s results, SKC sits 11th in the 12-team Western Conference, and with Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, they were officially eliminated from postseason contention, marking the first time since the team returned to the West that they will not be in the postseason.
One year ago, it took goals from Sebastián Blanco and Diego Valeri in a conference final to end Kansas City’s season. That was November of 2018. This year, Sporting’s offseason will start two months sooner.
Recent history: Feilhaber, Fernandez dramatics at Providence Park
Last game: Portland won, 2-1, on September 7 at Providence Park
All-time: The teams are 7-7-5 all-time against each other
The match was so recent, most Timbers fans will remember it: the game where Benny Feilhaber's cross almost derailed Portland; the game where Brian Fernandez’s heroics salvaged the host’s result:
Unfortunately for the Timbers, September 7 was the last time Portland changed their win column, but with Sporting having last four in a row, the Timbers should demand the same result.
Focus player: Sporting KC defender Matt Besler
Season: 25 games, 24 starts in central defense
All-time: 282 appearances; four-time MLS All-Star; 2012 Defender of the Year
Sporting has traditionally been one of the stingiest teams in MLS, but like so many things in 2019, that’s changed. The 59 goals Kansas City have allowed are already 14 more than the previous high from Vermes’ time in charge.
That means it’s the high of the Matt Besler era, too. Drafted by Kansas City in 2009, Besler has been one of the best defenders of the last decade of Major League Soccer. But with the loss of centerback Ike Opara this offseason and the change from left back Seth Sinovic over the last two months, Besler’s seen mainstays to his right and left change. For the first time since he became a regular, Besler’s seen his defense struggle for solutions.
Now 32, Besler’s still young enough to be part of how Sporting moves forward. For now, though, his efforts have gone to holding his team together during a disappointing season.
Focus matchup: Portland’s left back versus Johnny Russell
Playing their fifth game in 15 days, it’s unclear who will be in Portland’s starting lineup, with the team’s selection at left back particularly important. Jorge Villafaña’s the first choice, but given short rest and travel, he could be rotated. And with backup Zarek Valentin also a candidate at right back, a newly-healthy Marco Farfan could break into the lineup.
Whoever gets the call will have to handle one of the best right wings in the league. In just under two years in MLS, Scottish international Johnny Russell has scored 19 goals, assisted on 18 others, and established himself as Sporting’s most reliable attacking force.
Felipe Gutierrez leads Sporting in goals (12), and in terms of his overall game, he may eclipse Russell’s influence, but without the Scot’s presence in attack, Sporting has few ways of scaring opponents. He may not be the head of the snake, exactly, but he may be its venom.
As for the Timbers …
It’s not make-or-break time, yet. In fact, the Timbers are closer to clinching a playoff spot than falling out of the postseason. Couple a win with some help from Colorado (against FC Dallas) or Seattle (at San Jose), and . Portland can punch their ticket to a third-consecutive playoffs.
Form, though, matters; or, put another way, progress is important. And while some facets of the Timbers’ game continued to improve on Wednesday against New England, at some point, that progress needs to reach the win column.
