BEAVERTON, Ore. ā The Portland Timbers will try to extend their five-game unbeaten streak on Saturday night, but theyāll do so without one of their most important parts. When Real Salt Lake makes their second visit of the season to Providence Park, the Timbers will be missing centerback Larrys Mabiala, who will be serving a one-game suspension for accumulating too many yellow cards.
The Timbersā defense has struggled for much of the 2021 season ā theyāve allowed the fifth-most goals in Major League Soccer ā but over the teamās last five games, Portlandās only conceded three times, and none of those goals have come from open play when both teams have 11 players. Two goals were conceded to Colorado while the Rapids were playing 11-on-10. The third was the result of a penalty kick after a hand ball.
In that time, Mabiala has been one of the teamās standout performers. He was highlighted as such with a place in Major League Soccerās Team of the Week after Sundayās win, but his impact can also been seen in some season-wide numbers. The plus-one goal difference Portland has when Mabiala is on the field is tied for best among Portland defenders, while the Timbersā plus-0.07 goal difference-per-90 minutes in Mabialaāstime is best among the teamās backline. Each of the teamās other centerbacks is negative in both numbers.
Part of those discrepancies may come down to the sample sizes. Players like Zac McGraw and Bill Tuiloma havenāt been given huge minutes at centerback this season. To judge a player like McGraw, for example, on the outlying result at FC Dallas would be unfair. Still, even if the numbers might not do justice to what could happen going forward, they do describe what happened before. And to the extent the Timbers backline has been successful, Mabiala seems to have played a significant part.
That obviously canāt happen on Saturday. Thanks to an early first-half yellow card on Sunday against Los Angeles FC, Mabiala has been cautioned six times this season. Thatās second on the team (Dario Zuparic has eight) and enough to put him in the suites for Saturday. In all likelihood, Tuiloma is going to have step into the team next to Zuparic against RSL.
In terms of the numbers, above, Tuiloma is not that far off Mabiala. When Mabiala plays, the Timbers are giving up 1.32 goals per 90 minutes; with Tuiloma, that rate goes up to 1.67. Those numbers feel meaningfully different, but given the sample sizes (1358 minutes for Mabiala; 1448 for Tuiloma, with not all at center back), they may not be in different ballparks. And given Mabialaās numbers have benefitted from the Timbersā recent run (of which heās been a big part), those numbers may not do a good job of reflecting the playersā actual performance.
Still, if youād said at the beginning of the season that Mabiala would be especially important to the Timbersā defense, few would have disagreed. Since Mabiala arrived in the middle of the 2017 season, the best stretches of Timbers goal prevention have come when heās played like one of the better centerbacks in MLS. Over the last month, as Mabiala has played particularly well, the Timbers defense has returned to form. The consistency Portlandās had over its unbeaten run has correlated perfectly with the defenseās improved results.
Saturday is Portlandās chance to show how far that relationship goes. At some point, Mabiala was going to miss a game before the end of the season, just as itās unlikely that Zuparic, Claudio Bravo, Josecarlos Van Rankin or Tuiloma would be available for every game between now and game 34. At some point, Portland would have to continue showing their uptick transcends any single player, game, or happenstance on the field. What weāve seen from the Timbers since August 29 needs to be part of their DNA if the team is going to reach their 2021 goals.
Ninety minutes on Saturday against Real Salt Lake isnāt going to prove anything, but it will give us a hint. Weāll learn a little more about the depths of Portlandās recent turnaround. Has the revival weāve seen since their loss at Austin settled into the teamās core? If so, signs of that should keep coming through against RSL.
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