KeyBank Scouting Report | Injury questions, suspension returns and style in focus for Western Conference Championship leg two

KANSAS CITY, Mo. – Lingering thoughts after Sunday’s 0-0 result between the Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City should come down to one, generalized question: How is Thursday’s rematch going to be different?

After all, it has to be different; at least, it has to be if we’re going to avoid another scoreless stalemate. As the Audi 2018 MLS Cup Playoffs Western Conference Championship shifts to Kansas from Oregon (6:30pm PT, ESPN | Match presented by Oregon Lottery), Sporting may like their chances of breakthrough, now enjoying the advantages of their home field. But the Timbers may see the first 90 minutes as indicative of a matchup that leans slightly in their direction, leaving any difference between legs one and two more likely to favor the Green and Gold.

The most obvious changes will be to the teams’ lineups, with both sides likely to make at least one change to their starting XI. The less obvious change, though, will come from the matchups’ pushes and pulls – the tactical chess match which, constantly evolving on the surface of Children’s Mercy Park, will test each head coach’s intuition and patience, challenging them to balance preemption with persistence when it comes to their adjustments.

As leg one showed, the margin between these teams may be razor thin, making any change, break or lingering question potentially decisive when it comes to the West’s MLS Cup final berth. Here are three question’s – this week’s KeyBank Scouting Report – that will need to be addressed as Thursday’s match unfolds:

1. Will we see Larrys Mabiala or Andy Polo?

Bill Tuiloma has been called into action twice this postseason, and on Thursday, he may be in line for a third turn. Thus far, the New Zealand international hasn’t missed a beat, whether it was filling in for a suspended Larrys Mabiala in leg one against Seattle Sounders FC or coming off the bench early against Sporting. In 162 minutes this postseason, Portland has allowed 0.55 goals per 90 minutes when Tuiloma’s to the right of Liam Ridgewell.

With Mabiala’s status uncertain, it’s entirely possible Tuiloma will get his second start of the playoffs. Andy Polo, however, is a different story. On Monday, Portland head coach Giovanni Savarese said he expected his Peruvian winger to resume full training this week, with a calf injury having kept Polo out of the gameday 18 on Sunday improving ahead of the team’s last Western Conference battle.

As that game showed, Mabiala and Polo’s absences need not be a make-or-break proposition. With Tuiloma and Dairon Asprilla on the field, Portland would still be capable of making a second MLS Cup final. But Mabiala and Polo are starters for a reason, and if either are fit enough to play on Thursday, the Timbers will be better for it.

2. What does Diego Rubio’s return mean for SKC?

The hosts, likewise, are expecting one of their options to return, though given Diego Rubio was out because of suspension, not injury, his availability isn’t in doubt. Come kickoff, expect Sporting’s most potent scorer to be available.

Whether he starts is a different question. Although the Chilean forward has SKC’s best goal rate, this season, has scored twice in the playoffs and is one of three Sporting players to reach double-digit goals, his fellow number nine, Khiry Shelton, has continued to get starts despite his deficit on the scoresheet. Per those numbers, Rubio looks like a huge addition. In reality, does he necessarily unseat Sunday’s starter?

Ultimately, it might not matter that much. For a second leg of a conference final, both coaches have to keep extra time in mind, and when it comes to one of the most physically demanding positions on the field, that means identifying two players instead of one. For Portland, those two players are Jeremy Ebobisse and Lucas Melano, who have been the Timbers’ tandem nines since the postseason started. For Sporting, that means Rubio and Shelton, even if it’s unclear who, exactly, will start.

3. Does Sporting KC open up?

On the same weekend the New York Red Bulls were derided for not sticking to their preferred, pressing style in the Eastern Conference Championship, Sporting Kansas City got a pass from the national punditry for not employing the same abandon they usually use pressuring opponents. The reason for that is unfortunately obvious. The Red Bulls conceded twice late against Atlanta and return home for their second leg down three goals. Sporting, in contrast, more than survive. Their tactical tweaks kept them on even footing for the West’s second round.

Perhaps Sporting’s change of approach was less drastic than New York’s, but in their tightness of their midfield – which then had a carry-on effect to their pressing game – SKC played noticeably different in Portland than they usually do. The Kansas-inspired open plains that usually exist between one level of midfield (Ilie Sánchez’s) and the other (Roger Espinoza and Felipe Gutiérrez’s) close like a panicked lock on the Mississippi, keeping Sporting’s formation tighter than usual.

At home, that could very well change, but that change could play in into both teams’ hands, if that is possible. Should Thursday’s hosts go back to their stretched, sometimes broken (formationally) but mistake-forcing ways, the West’s second leg could be played on their terms instead of Portland’s. For a Timbers team that was 18th in MLS in possession this season, though, that might be more wish than curse.

More space for Diego Chara to burst through, Diego Valeri to settle into, Ebobisse to stretch and Sebastián Blanco to exploit sounds like an opponents’ nightmare. But does Sporting tempt that nightmare for its own dreams to play out?